Here are the average year-over-year inflation rates by president, and the events and economic conditions that contributed to them.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller urged policymakers to take a measured approach as they assess whether inflation is becoming entrenched again.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has indicated that he would regard another higher inflation reading as a significant indicator rather than a temporary fluctuation. This statement suggests a closer scrutiny of inflation data and may imply a higher likelihood of rate hikes if inflation remains elevated.

Christopher J. Waller, a governor at the Federal Reserve, said he needed to see several months of lower inflation data to feel confident about the outlook.

The 12-month rate of inflation as of June 2026 is 3.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Energy inflation spiked to 15.7% as the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains

Inflation rose 4.2 percent in May, the highest since 2023, keeping prices above the Fed’s target and increasing the odds of a rate hike later this year.

This advice will come as a surprise to those who have accepted the popular narrative that real interest rates — the difference between U.S. inflation and reported, or nominal, rates — fell to negative levels earlier this year as inflation worsened.

Federal Funds Futures are now nearly evenly split on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its July meeting, with 59% of traders betting on a pause and 41% anticipating a hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Inflation is a gradual loss of purchasing power that is reflected in a broad rise in prices for goods and services over time. The inflation rate is calculated as the average price increase of a basket of selected goods and services over one year.

Williams cited five reasons why he expects the latest price surge has run its course.